Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 89183.233840 94074.840750 98963.793980 104213.370651 109687.209412 115223.175783 121241.724914
2025-06-29 80529.998744 87970.340282 95613.800243 104042.459909 113065.696991 122425.227842 132856.928055
2025-07-06 74391.398465 83557.704118 93181.128636 104016.475059 115854.992105 128375.016510 142594.926253
2025-07-13 70800.495814 81379.094767 92686.035965 105635.471298 120019.383836 135470.082718 153284.476397
2025-07-20 67789.720990 79509.652062 92234.038498 107023.432536 123686.241064 141824.661003 163006.751352
2025-07-27 64898.358505 77531.637420 91443.590043 107829.605877 126527.596820 147123.865100 171449.552178
2025-08-03 61960.501936 75305.302583 90196.189545 107952.335644 128452.346290 151279.658645 178519.272036
2025-08-10 59505.746655 73488.294294 89283.197553 108332.315792 130562.653061 155562.959429 185676.006080
2025-08-17 57126.539083 71633.360989 88212.294549 108422.533932 132247.287721 159289.966141 192148.257819
2025-08-24 55592.878017 70694.647861 88138.772913 109612.955240 135161.147761 164404.141415 200216.311939
2025-08-31 53470.148042 68953.479835 87029.405976 109498.257912 136472.957349 167604.063959 206022.947665
2025-09-07 52343.653367 68364.092609 87247.941029 110927.315715 139587.412433 172908.220138 214312.508574
2025-09-14 50932.129781 67389.347163 86979.130747 111762.646257 142006.583787 177430.571069 221752.345067
2025-09-21 49235.380090 66000.153416 86153.254915 111876.460570 143524.815377 180867.395131 227908.685151
2025-09-28 47608.533006 64638.100431 85306.584555 111915.488975 144913.253928 184124.781236 233844.176821
2025-10-05 46906.435294 64414.517523 85846.045344 113648.862357 148369.124213 189886.081765 242832.064366
2025-10-12 46130.789760 64062.070914 86196.110778 115125.230357 151498.671980 195256.859017 251372.176211
2025-10-19 45115.778456 63361.686122 86074.111439 115981.449260 153840.786110 199661.793471 258747.268245
2025-10-26 43828.244224 62262.527106 85406.020484 116111.850449 155248.789558 202903.884586 264695.015953
2025-11-02 42727.301666 61372.708602 84974.183080 116515.060993 156980.010330 206537.414333 271133.665989
2025-11-09 41548.158897 60341.758438 84326.408059 116610.791969 158298.838885 209646.274132 276923.363712
2025-11-16 40918.231434 60025.273988 84591.367890 117873.755167 161101.726015 214619.132337 285065.285383
2025-11-23 39745.682104 58939.389558 83814.808066 117752.075653 162106.622677 217319.814605 290358.215102